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The account is green. The renewal argument is not.
Fictional demonstration—not a diagnosis of Big Leap's operations.
1The owner question
Should we offer a renewal discount on the strength of lead growth?
2What each team sees
Account team
Leads up 20%; account health green.
Client discussion
New-market qualified opportunities are the priority.
Sales
Renewal brief cites aggregate lead growth.
Each team's report looks fine. Connecting them changes the decision.
3Connect the evidence
4What does not reconcile
- RECORDLeads 200 → 240; priority-market opportunities 6 → 6.
- INFERENCEPossible mismatch in success definitions — not proof of dissatisfaction or churn.
- SCENARIOConfirming criteria at full price yields $81,000 vs $72,000 with a discount, assuming renewal.
A difference between systems is not necessarily an error.
5Financial bridge
Agency contribution · 12-month contract, assuming renewal
- SCENARIORenew at discount: $240,000 × 90% − $144,000 = $72,000
- SCENARIOConfirm criteria, full price, targeted delivery: $240,000 − $144,000 − $12,000 − $3,000 workshop = $81,000
- SCENARIOTargeted delivery costs more: $240,000 − $144,000 − $24,000 − $3,000 workshop = $69,000
Nonrenewal exposure · fees
$240,000
Exposure — not expected loss or intervention benefit
Nonrenewal exposure · contribution
$96,000
Under stated cost-avoidability assumptions
6Compare decisions
Verify before acting
Advantage vs baseline: $9,000 · Added delivery plus workshop must stay below $24,000/year; with the workshop, added delivery below $1,750/month.
All comparisons assume renewal. No renewal probability is estimated.
7Why we might be wrong
INFERENCETotal leads remain the client's real goal and the July comment was exploratory.
- Evidence strength
- Records conflict; meeting outcome unconfirmed.
- Execution dependencies
- Client availability for a workshop.
- Financial sensitivity
- Break-even at $1,750/month added delivery.
- Client or contractual approval
- Client must confirm success criteria.
- Timing uncertainty
- Renewal date drives timing.
8Next action
- Recommendation
- Confirm the success criteria before discounting.
- Accountable role
- Account Director
- Verification needed
- Hold a success-criteria workshop and get written confirmation.
- Reversal trigger
- A current client-approved plan confirms total leads remain the primary goal.
- Excluded benefits
- No renewal probability is estimated.
- Nonrenewal exposure is shown separately and is not a benefit.