The new contract displaces more contribution than expected.
Fictional demonstration—not a diagnosis of Big Leap's operations.
1The owner question
Should we launch Summit immediately or phase the start?
2What each team sees
Sales
$90,000 new fees this quarter.
Resource planning
Specialists are already 85% committed.
Finance
Existing accounts are on track.
Each team's report looks fine. Connecting them changes the decision.
3Connect the evidence
4What does not reconcile
- RECORD34 of 40 specialist hours committed; no coverage confirmed.
- INFERENCEImmediate launch displaces $18,000 of existing contribution.
- SCENARIOA phased start yields $34,000 vs $15,000 this quarter.
A difference between systems is not necessarily an error.
5Financial bridge
Agency contribution · 90 days
- SCENARIOLaunch immediately: $90,000 − $45,000 − $12,000 rush − $18,000 displaced = $15,000
- SCENARIOPhased start: $75,000 − $39,000 − $2,000 replanning = $34,000
- SCENARIOClient accepts smaller phased scope: $54,000 − $39,000 − $2,000 = $13,000
Displaced contribution
$18,000
$30,000 lost fees − $12,000 avoided delivery; lost revenue not subtracted twice
Fees deferred beyond quarter
$15,000
Deferred, not permanently lost
6Compare decisions
Verify before acting
Advantage vs baseline: $19,000 · Phased quarter fees must exceed $56,000 to beat immediate launch.
Supported unless confirmed coverage removes the collision.
7Why we might be wrong
INFERENCECoverage can be secured in time, removing the collision.
- Evidence strength
- Commitments recorded; displacement inferred.
- Execution dependencies
- Contractor coverage.
- Financial sensitivity
- Phased fees threshold $56,000.
- Client or contractual approval
- Client must accept phasing.
- Timing uncertainty
- Fees shift beyond the quarter.
8Next action
- Recommendation
- Offer a phased start unless confirmed coverage removes the collision.
- Accountable role
- Managing Director
- Verification needed
- Confirm contractor coverage and client tolerance for phasing.
- Reversal trigger
- Confirmed coverage removes the collision.
- Excluded benefits
- Deferred fees are not permanently lost revenue.
- Lost revenue is not subtracted twice.
